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MBA643 Project Risk, Finance, And Monitoring, Kaplan Business School, Australia

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Abstract: This assessment deals with the project of north-east link Melbourne. It will describe as of how the project is being shaped up. This casestudy will cover up the whole details of how the project is being shaped up and the details of how much time the project might take up to finish. There will be details which will be furnished about the project. The project will also be highlighting the risk factors the project might face. The details of how the project is going to help the state and its helpfulness. The assessment will also study how the factors are going to help the project and give the project a greater aspect. The project will also look after the risk factors and how the risk factors are solved, and the works are carried out.

So, these are the things which we have discussed in our assessment, and we hope that this will help in enhancing in our case studies.

Part A - Project Overview

In which students discuss their allocated project case study (you are allocated one based on your last name) and outline rationale, key features, funding and stakeholders

Answer: Project Overview: The project North East Link Melbourne is a government project which is being run by the government of Australia. The project was being thought in the year 1929, and now it has been identified as Victoria priority road project. The project was now being again reconsidered, and the project development has been started. The project is reconsidered in the year 2019 again, and the layout of the project has been formulated, and the project will be starting from the year 2020 and the expected time when the project might end up is around the year 2027.

As the project is announced, it is being implied that this project will have some benefit on the roads and this will help in making the traffic works properly, and there will be no congestion on the roads. But as we know, there are pros and cons to everything. So there is a disadvantage regarding that many places houses are being taken off, or the residents have to shift out due to the construction of the roads.

The estimated budget of the project is around $16.5 billion which makes it one of the most expensive projects of Australia and the total budget will help it around to make it a beautiful project for the government. The project is being built for the help of the traffic conditions of the state of Melbourne. The project will help in the growth of the economic conditions of the country where there will be a job of around 10,000 people in construction country. The aspect of jobs will increase in a greater way which will increase the economy of the country. The project is built to an orbital freeway route over in the middle of Melbourne and Altona in the west and Frankston in the south. The project will begin from Eastern Freeway from Springvale Road bridging a current route to M80 ring road at Greensbourgh. The central route will broden near about eleven kilometres from the east end of M80 to Eastern Freeway to Bulleen. The northern passage of the road will break at the surface before piercing near Watsonia Road and into channels at Lower Plenty Road, and then changing into a bridge construction just north of Koonung creek to associate to Eastern Freeway which passes through Greensborough Bypass, Grimshaw Street, Lower Plenty Road and Manningham Road.

The key construction element that will help in developing the roads is that is a tolling system. The toll plaza will be constructed which will help in looking after the economy of the country as it will help in generating the economy of the country in a larger and a greater way. So, the construction of a toll or tolling system will provide ways in a better way.

The project will tend to make a profit from the tolling system as we have already known that there will be some toll-roads and it is being estimated that the toll-roads will give them a huge return. It is being estimated that every $1 spent on the project will allow them to return near about $1.30. So a huge profit margin for the government. The stakeholders of the project are the governments of Australia the Victorian government, the Federal Government, The Local Government, Private Road Operators, Market, Land Owners, Transport Peak bodies, Road users, Freight Industry, Transport Operators, Social Service Providers, and Media etc. So they are the stakeholders of the project.

The environmental effect which we will have after the completion of this project will be quite a terrible thing as it will lead to the destruction of some of the greenfields and some of the developed part of the area, and it will affect their way of living, and also some of them might have to leave their houses and go to stay in some part of the other area. But as we know for some better aspects we have to face some problems as this project might lend out there might be no traffic problems the convenience will be easier plus the working conditions will increase the number of jobs might increase out which will result in the economic growth of the country.
The total cost acquiring this project will also have a greater impact as through investing this amount we can see the total economy of the country will increase drastically and there would be more jobs in the northern side of Australia and many more convenient option will be open for the people to move on. This convenience will help them in doing the works properly and as the number of workfields increases out so do the economy of the country also increases drastically.

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Part B - Risk Analysis

In which students develop their risk analysis framework

Answer: Risk Analysis: As we know, there is a risk of multiple factors while committing out or facing out a large project. The problems or the risks which can be faced out are that there may be something which will give you an uncertainty framework about the whole project. The things which we can look out are that there might be people and business changes, soverign automobiles, travel claim, convinced claim contour, absolute earning levels, and travel allowances, realistic route size, expedition duration, public transport constraints, and demand or business levels.So these are the risk factors which have been sorted out. We can also sort out these risk factors and check whether the PMBOK principles have been referred to take out the measures. PMBOK stands for Project Management Body of Knowledge. It helps in collecting process in expertise field approved as finest method as the design mainframe field. This organization only accepts five important aspects. They are Initiating, Planning, Executing, Monitoring and Controlling, Closing. These are the main thing which PMBOK looks after. This PMBOK can widely help in reducing the risk factors if the North East Link Melbourne follows those guidelines.

The key risks which can be found out are that these key-risks are really one of the deciding factors which can be found out. Firstly the risk which can be found or stated out is the risk of Land-acquisition. Due to the large-scale project, there will be land -acquisition and the project might pass over the Greenfield areas along with advanced stretch that may arises complexion that may amount volatility in the area addition devlopment. The exprosure that area addition is no more adequate to acceptable excellent mainframe design, convey the approved opportunity or applicable mainframe agenda conveyed at economic convinence. Secondly, the exposure aspect is the execution and nature complication. There is a risk in that factor because the risk is that ultimate execution, natural and lawful complication are not accessed in conformity with interval or design acknoweldge at monetary clause. The risk which is a factor, i.e. sometimes approvals are being delayed or revoked which results in increased costs. Thirdly another important factor is community and stakeholder's impact risks. The risk which is there that sometimes may be the stakeholders/local community may oppose out for the project which results in an increase of the cost. Due to Greenfield land uses there is a possibility that there will be uses of residential and commercial uses of the plot which leads to opposing from the local communities or the stakeholders. Another factor that prevails out is the market capacity and competition risks there might be a possibility of having danger of deficient assets availability in the retail to adequate backup the mainframe .It can happen for the increase in competition in market as there are many projects on the pipeline there may be a shortage of materials. So this is one of the potential risks. Another risk which can be looked out after is the scope specification risks. The scope specification risks tend. Another risk which can be looked out after is the scope specification risks. The scope specification risks tend to require changes due to the interference from the government which also results in an increase in the budget. There is a chance that due to a large scale project there are chances of not meeting the specific criteria. Next, we can see, i.e. industrial relation risk. An industrial relation risk is also a main criteria due to the bulk of the mainframe. It occurs may be due to some mishaps between the contractor and the labour. These risks greatly affect the industry. Next is the interface risk between transport users (road traffic) and project construction activities. This risk will lead to increase costs in the project drastically. Next risk which prevails out is the design and development cost. These factors happen as it is a big scale project and there might be some detailing and developing cost. So to fulfil these factors, there might be an increase in the cost. Another factor which prevails out is the changes in low risk. The changes in the law also increase the risk factor of the project, as the law gives new verdict which makes the cost of the project to increase. Next risks which we can see is that defect in tunnel structures, viaduct structures both have the same risks as it increases the cost of the projects if any defect is being found during inspection of the project. Lastly, the risks which we are going to talk about is the traffic risks as maybe the traffic noises may increase out and there might not be such infrastructure. So to build the infrastructure we have to cost an amount again.

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Part C - Risk Mitigation Plan

In which students identify mitigation measures and proposals for overcoming the risks identified in their case study

Answer: Risk Mitigation Plan: The risk factors which we have been discussing in the previous sections and now we will be here discussing that how we can mitigate a plan so that these risks can be stopped there are several ways by which we can stop those risk factors.

Firstly we had a structured risk identification workshop where we tried to identify the main possible risks which are being affected now. The risks which we affected are there in the previous section. The risks are needed to be addressed. So we started to hold workshops, seminars with delegates from Transport of Victoria, NELA and DTF where we discussed the possibilities of the problems and the problems are also being identified, and we also discussed the risk mitigation process.

Secondly, we had Structured risk quantification workshops where we held two workshops to quantify those risks which were being identified;-

Workshops were conducted by cost surveyor, Advising, with his specialized group, to appraise candid form and amount uncertainity of the project

Workshop undertaken by the delegates from Transport for Victoria, NELA and DTF advise quantifying mainframe uncertainity not precisely capped by straight design and project.

Discussion during those seminars mainly concentrate on the chances of identifying uncertainity materializing, the hidden amount everlasting to the project, some of the risks which were quantified and defined as:

1. Project Development/Pre-Construction

2. Design and Construction

3. Operation and maintenance

During these workshops, we had some chances, and post-discussion amount impacts were assigned to identify risks.

This table will give you a glimpse of how it worked out:

Probability rating

Likelihood of Financial Impact

Almost Certain

More than 76%

Likely

Between 51%  to 75%

Possible

Between 26% to 50%

Unlikely

Between 6% to 25%

Rare

Less than 5%

The next table also deals out about the cost in D&C periods and O&M periods.

Impact rating

Financial Impact(Pre-construction and D&C)

Financial Impact (O&M period)

Severe

More than $100 million

$2 million to $4 million p.a.

Major

$50 million to $100 million

$1 million to $2 million p.a.

Moderate

$20million to $50 million

$0.4 million to $1 million p.a.

Minor

$10million to $20 million

$0.2 million to $0.4 million pa

Insignificant

Not more than $10 million

Not more than $0.2 million p.a

The third process which was carried out is the Monte Carlo simulation. This simulation was carried through software named Palisade @ Risk software. It was done to estimate the amount of the dangerous uncertainity found in the project reflection. Based on the chances and impact of uncertainity realization identified during the task the simulation identified a number of financial possibilities.

The simulation identified two outcomes which are defined below:

1. Capital expenditure (CAPEX):- includes pre-construction and D&C risks

2. Operating expenditure (OPEX):- includes O&M risks after the construction.

Last steps which we followed out are to review our whole process. A team was formed who was undertaken to compare the assessed risks of northeast link project CAPEX and OPEX to the ongoing structure mainframe. The duty was being handled by the elders officials of the project team and the NELA members to see if they could do something in their collective decision, the total money of the mainframe amounted estimates and dangerous estimates were adequate and reasonable.

So, this process of whole identification can be seen as a quantitative approach and this approach helps in looking after the whole process of how the risk mitigation plan.These steps moluds our process in a great way and evenly makes the risk factors less and the cost of the project is also less down and these factors helps to run the project in a smooth way.

There is also about something called risk allocation which is being distributed between the state government and the private companies. This approach has been maintained, and it remained consistent with the principal of risks being allocated to parties whichare best to manage or mitigate the risks at least cost. So, private companies can help out a lot in doing risk allocation. They can deal with and make the best possible things in avery cheap medium.

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The risk allocation was also helped in dividing the work between the people so if any emergency used to arise out so the emergency could be solved out and the private companies who were best in their respective fields where being handled those things that were good for them.

So, hereby the project report is concluded where we have discussed all the aspects as to how the project is being shaped up and how the project will work out and the vision of the project is to look out how the economic conditions of the country increases out due to any projects where there are many scopes arrives or arises out from the things. So these are my points against the case study which I have presented out.

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