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ECON 361 Economic and Business Forecasting

This ECON 361 Economic and Business Forecasting block introduces quantitative economic forecasting. Topics discussed include exponential smoothing, ARIMA, and vector auto regression. This section focuses on the practical aspects of forecasting. The theory is developed only to the extent that it is necessary to understand the forecasting procedures introduced in the module. Throughout the section, students will regularly do divination exercises. The actual work is done using the econometric software package. The purpose of this module is to educate graduates who understand the nature of forecasting problems and can make informed predictions for business and economic analysis.

Business forecasting involves wise assumptions about certain business metrics, whether they reflect specific business conditions, such as sales growth, or forecasts for the entire economy. Financial and operating decisions are made based on economic conditions and future conditions, although there are uncertainties.

Companies use forecasts to help them develop business strategies. Historical data is collected and analyzed so that patterns can be found. Today, big data and artificial intelligence have changed the way business forecasting is done. There are several ways to make business predictions. All methods fall under one of two general methods: qualitative and quantitative.

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